Coming up this weekend is a clash of the titans between 2 feather weights in Lucas Pinheiro and Mikey Musumeci. This is a nogi match that will take place at Who's number One, so it will also be submission only. Unfortunately this weight class isn't very stacked, but perhaps this match can change that and draw more interest to the lighter weights in nogi. These 2 have fought each other twice before in the gi, but this is their first clash nogi. Let's look at their strengnths and weaknesses.
Lucas is extremely well rounded however I think his specialty is his pressure passing. At the lighter weights passing becomes more rare and pressure passers are rarer still. This gives Lucas a game that is hard to prepare for since he can not only generate a large amount of pressure, but he is also fast and isn't opposed to using speed passes. He does have a good guard, but I don't believe it is his strongest weapon. I believe his wrestling is also underrated because he rarely uses it. He can be quite fast and explosive and combined with his physical strength IMO gives him the advantage in physicality.
Mikey is almost the opposite as he uses a very modern style focused on guard play. His main weapons are the berimbolo and the ankle lock. Mikey is known for having an almost impassable guard and his ability to make opponents fight his fight. He seems more comfortable off his back, but as you can see from his last fight on WNO he is also good at passing. Although he can play the traditional "sweep and pass" game he often uses crab rides and berimbolos to go straight to his opponents back. Mikey is one of the best in the world at doing this and this combined with his leg locks makes him extremely dangerous.
Watch the beautiful triangle transition starting at 10:35
Keys to Victory
I think the biggest factor in this match is how they will adapt to the rules set. I believe this is a 15 min match and if there is no submission it will go to the judges. Here sweeps and things like positions count for much less than submission attempts. This can be taken advantage of and used to either win on the judges score card or get the sub. I think either can win if they base their strategy around this, however both are known more for their IBJJF focused strategy.
For Lucas, I believe opening up more and relying less on his pressure passing will help him. Mikey's guard is hard to pass and I doubt Lucas can wear him down. Pressure passing won't earn him much in the judges eyes. If he can mix things up and go for things like rolling kimuras, flying triangles, etc he could definitely score a win. I believe Lucas has the edge in the scrambles and if he gets put on his back he should be able to stand up and I doubt Mikey will wrestle with him. This also might open things up for his pressure passing and allow him to get an upper body sub. Attacking Mike's legs is another option, however because Mikey is very experienced with leg locks and crab ride attacks, I think this would only lead to Lucas getting reversed and counter attacked.
Mikey has quite a few ways to win, but he needs to keep Lucas from smothering him and dictating the pace. Lucas is savvy and doesn't seem particularly susceptible to upper body subs. I think Mikey's best chance is to attack the feet with leg entanglements and crab rides. He has an advantage in this area and he should be able to score points if not the submission. One problem he might run into is that many of the things he does from the guard aren't available in nogi. He's admitted to not training much nogi before, but recently he has made to switch. However is 1-2 months enough to get your nogi game up to snuff? If his berimbolo/crab ride game isn't working well without the gi it could be a long night for him. Although Mike's guard is generally seen as unpassable, Lucas has passed it before.
This should be and interesting match and I believe the winner of this match is less important than how exciting and interesting this match is. This weight class has few competitors and there doesn't seem to be a big market for it. With a great match these 2 can get people talking and get more matches for themselves and others. I'd encourage both to try new things and open up their games.
Good preview. I'm gonna go with Mikey as I don't think he'll be passed and showed good pressure and control on top against Cohen. Hope we can see that no-gi canto choke he's been talking about.
Good preview. I'm gonna go with Mikey as I don't think he'll be passed and showed good pressure and control on top against Cohen. Hope we can see that no-gi canto choke he's been talking about.
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