ADCC is right around the corner and I thought I'd drop some thoughts about some of the topics around the tournament. Some of these are my own thoughts and others are common topics people have been discussing over the years. Perhaps this year will shed some light on some old questions in grappling and perhaps revel the new "meta". So let's talk about a few things before ADCC starts and see who you the readers picked as the winners for each divisions.
Lighter Weight Absolute Hopefuls
Let's talk about some people from -88kg and below that could win the absolute division. As of now I have no idea who will actually enter the absolute division, but I'd like to talk about some people I think could do well if they enter.
Lachlan Giles has to be the first on this list. He came in 3rd last time and shocked the world with his innovative approach to leg locks. However I don't know if he will enter the absolute again this time around.
Gary Tonon is the only person at -66kg that might be able to hang with the big boys in the absolute division. Keep in mind he won with EBI light heavy weight tournament despite being 2-3 weight classes smaller, so he has experience vs bigger foes.
JT Torres is known to be extremely strong and fast. He doesn't usually fight larger people, but recently he fought the -99kg South American trials winner and was up 13-0, before hitting a kneebar. If he can do that to someone that much larger, he could be a force in the absolute division.
William Tackett has also had success against larger foes. He has submitted quite a few heavy weights in the last few years such as Tex Johnson, Manuel Ribamar, and Fellipe Andrew. He seems to do well against people who are larger than him.
Mica Galvao has looked almost unstoppable recently. He has wins in his weight class, but also against larger opponents such as Leandro Lo and Lucas Barbosa. I hope we see him enter.
The Ruotolos have a relentless style that could easily gas out larger foes. The are also extremely hard to submit and train with larger people. They could do well if they enter.
Mason Fowler is someone that has been looking very good recently as well. He seems very strong and was able to win the -99kg trials despite the fact that he is a -88kg competitor. He has the strength and skills to win.
Vagner Rocha is a veteran who knows all the tricks to win. He has been fight larger opponents recently and looking good. He could surprise a lot of people and do well in the absolute division.
Lucas Barbosa has moved down to -88kg, but he seems to have retained his strength. I think his explosiveness will be too much for most people. Even at a lighter weight I don't think the bigger fighters will be able to handle him.
Pedro Marino is also someone who could mix it up with the big boys. He won the no gi world's absolute division and defeated Cyborg, so he could definitely do well at ADCC too.
Wrestling
One area that many people are flocking to is hand-fighting. This is being used more and more to wear down opponents. Many people are hanging off their opponent's head using collar ties to tire them and exhaust them before they hit the ground. To see this in action watch matches from Gordon Ryan, Lucas "Hulk" Barbosa or the Ruotolo brothers. Having their opponents exhausted before they even hit the ground is a big advantage. Unfortunately hand-fighting is also used to stall fairly often and I think we will see that at ADCC too. I'm hoping they will be faster with stalling calls to stop this.
Mat wrestling is another area I'll be watching for. The rules of ADCC make it difficult to score, but by using mat wrestling you can greatly increase your scoring chances. However this hasn't really been exploited much. I've seen a few people doing it, but I wonder if it will increase at ADCC 2022. Things such as cradles, half Nelsons, various rides, etc could help people control their opponents or even exhaust them. Craig Jones talked about this in his Power Rides instructional, but I wonder how many people will actually implement it.
Another area of interest is Wrestling vs Judo. I'm being a bit liberal with my terminology, but what I'm referring too is bent over leg grabs vs upright throws. Right now in no gi grappling there seems to be no consensus about which is better. Each have their pros and cons and I'm interested in seeing which has more success this year. Recently there seems to be a trend of people using more throws and foot sweeps, but that might change at ADCC.
Wrestlers
AJ Agazarm, Josh Cisneros, Gary Tonon, Ruan Alvarenga, Fabricio Andre
JT Torres, Kade Ruotolo, Nicky Ryan, Dante Leon, Renato Canuto, PJ Barch, Andy Varela
Matheus Diniz, Mason Fowler, Jay Rodriguez, Izaak Michell, Josh Hinger, Tye Ruotolo, Lucas Barbosa, Pedro Marinho
Kaynan Duarte, Yuri Simoes, Elder Cruz
Nicky Rodriguez, Roberto Abreu
Ffion Davies
Kendall Reusing, Amy Campo, Rafaela Guedes
Leg Locks
Back in 2017 leg locks were the new thing that was going to revolutionize the game. However by 2019 people were saying they were becoming less effective and you couldn't beat people with leg locks the way you could in years past. This ADCC will be a test to see if leg locks have become less effective now that people know the defenses or if they are just as effective as they were 5 years ago.
After this event I'd like to collect stats from previous ADCCs and compare them. One thing I'd like to know is if the amount of leg locks is decreasing or increasing. As of right now, there have been more leg locks than arm locks this year. Of course I've counted various grappling events and none of the others have featured the caliber of athletes that will be present at ADCC. However just looking at the stats it doesn't seem like there has been any decline in the amount of leg locks and there might have even been an increase.
One thing that seems to have increased is the variety of leg locks. People seem to be using more ankle locks and kneebars as opposed to just heel hooks. At the upper divisions there have been quite a few outside heel hooks, but in the lower divisions they aren't as popular.
Leg lockers
Gary Tonon, Keith Krakorian, Jeremy Skinner, Ethan Crelinsten
Oliver Taza, William Tackett, Lachlan Giles, PJ Barch, Nicky Ryan, Davi Ramos
Eoghan O'Flanagan, Izaak Michell
Paul Ardila-Ibarra, Kyle Boehm, Craig Jones
Dan Manasoiu, Gordon Ryan, Roosevelt Sousa, Vinny Magalhaes, Victor Hugo
Brazilians
Brazil has a BJJ advantage, but in other places no gi has become more popular. In the past all the new grappling innovations would come from Brazilians, but this doesn't seem to be the case recently. Other regions seem to have gotten stronger and the athletes from these areas are matching or surpassing the Brazilian athletes. Of course these could just be isolated incidents and Brazil could wipe the floor with the other countries like they've done in the past.
-66kg Gary Tonon(51.52%), Cole Abate(14.12%), Ethan Creslinsten(10.59%)
-77kg Mica Galvao(36.75%), JT Torres(29.91%), Lachlan Giles(6.84%)
Brazil has always been at a disadvantage when it comes to 2 areas. Leg locks and wrestling. Many of the Brazilians are now training in the US however and have learned some new tricks. There are quite a few now that have good wrestling and their leg locks are coming along as well. In the past they have been able to beat everyone else even with these disadvantages, but if they've closed these holes they might widen their lead over others. Will Brazil stay on top or will this ADCC mark the end of an era?
Brazillians
Diogo Reis, Fabricio Andre, Kennedy Maciel, Gabriel Sousa, Deigo "Pato", Ruan Alverenga
Mica Galvao, Davi Ramos, Renato Canuto
Matheus Diniz, Isaque Bahiense, Alexandre De Jesus, Roberto Frias, Xande Riberio, Lucas Barbosa, Pedro Marihno
Joao Costa, Henrique Ceconi, Vinicius Ferreira, Kynan Duarte, Yuri Simoes, Nicholas Meregali, Lucas Lira
Roosevelt Sousa, Felipe Pena, Joao Gabriel Rocha, Victor Hugo, Roberto Abreu, Vinny Mahalhes, Max Gimenis
Top Position
For the last year or so I have noticed a trend in submission grappling. The top player usually comes wins the match. This wasn't always the case however and previously I'd say guard players had the advantage. Of course ADCC has always favored top play to a degree, but this trend isn't only in ADCC rule sets. Rulesets where points aren't involved or where guard pulling isn't penalized are also following this trend.
At first you might think this is a rule change issue or perhaps judging, but I don't believe this is the case. There seems to be a shift where the level of attacks from the top has increased. Guard passing seems to have increased across the board and it seems nobody has an impassable guard anymore. On top of that there seems to be a general increase in the level of attacks from the top position and a sense that people want to play from there.
Some people are wrestling for the top position and others and pulling and sweeping, but the trend I've been seeing is the less time you spend on bottom the better. The passing has become too dangerous and people don't see to be afraid of jumping on subs in transition like they once were.
Top players
AJ Agazarm, Josh Cisneros, Ruan Alvarenga
JT Torres, Kade Ruotolo, Lucas Lepri, Dante Leon, Renato Canuto, PJ Barch, Andy Varela
Matheus Diniz, Jay Rodriguez, Izaak Michell, Josh Hinger, Tye Ruotolo, Roberto Frias, Lucas Barbosa, Pedro Marinho
Vinicius Ferreira, Yuri Simoes, Elder Cruz, Devhonte Johnson, Joao Costa, Henrique Ceconi
Nicky Rodriguez, Orlando Sanchez, Max Gimenis
Ffion Davies, Bia Mesquita
Kendall Reusing, Amy Campo, Rafaela Guedes, Gabi Garcia
Submission Hunting
Since the last ADCC we have seen submission focused events become more and more popular. In turn this had led to more athletes taking risks and going for the kill instead of taking a more conservative approach. Traditionally the more conservative, positional based athletes have prevailed, but of course there are notable exceptions such as Marcelo Garcia or Dean Lister.
Going after submissions recklessly has often times caused people to lose position and thus lose the match. However is that still the case. Many of the younger athletes aren't afraid to take risks, but more importantly they aren't losing position as much as people would previously. Many are able to recover after going for high risk submissions and confuse or tire their opponents. However many of the competitors haven't gone against positional players on the level of what they will face at ADCC. Sometimes when you put dynamic, exciting athletes against high level, positionally sound opponents they end up looking regular.
In the last few years it seems like that game has changed a bit and I can't help but wonder if some of the new techniques and strategies will make a difference. In the past most matches consisted of one person playing from bottom position trying to sweep from guard and their opponent trying to pass. In the last few years we've seen less of this type of play as people aren't afraid to wrestle up from bottom or simply stand up. From the top people are dropping back for leg locks and diving for guillotines. Do the old rules still hold true, or it now a new world order where submission attacks reign.
Submission hunters
Gary Tonon, Josh Cisneros, Ruan Alvarenga, Keith Krakorian, Jeremy Skinner
Kade Ruotolo, Mica Galvao, Roberto Jimmenez, Davi Ramos, Renato Canuto, Andy Varela
Eoghan O'Flanagan, Jay Rodriguez, Tye Ruotolo
Kyle Boehm, Craig Jones
Roosevelt Souza, Haisam Rida, Vinny Magalhes
Bianca Basilio
Elizabeth Clay
No Gi Specialization
For years the accepted wisdom was that gi was more technical and that to become better at no gi you should spend the majority of your time practicing in the gi. There were many people that thought this didn't make sense, but you can't argue with results. In the past many champions rarely practiced without the gi, but were able to win at ADCC. In more recent years many have embraced no gi training and will spend about half of their time training no gi.
Most of the previous champions were also gi champions or at least high level gi competitors. However looking at things this way might be a bit biased. In the past there were very few people who trained exclusively without the gi, but this year we are seeing more pure no gi competitors. We will be able to see if training purely no gi can be as effective as training both.
In the current era there doesn't appear to be anyone who advocates training mostly in the gi for no gi competitions, but so far we haven't seen pure no gi dominance at ADCC. Will this be the year that things change. We still haven't achieved a 50/50 split between no gi specialists and gi fighters, but with new teams such as New Wave and B-team(Of course we can't forget about 10th planet), we can assume that is only a few ADCCs away.
No gi specialists
Gary Tonon, Ruan Alvarenga, Keith Krakorian, Ethan Creslinsten, Geo Martinez
Oliver Taza, Nicky Ryan, PJ Barch, Andy Varela
Jay Rodriguez, Izaak Michell
Kyle Boehm, Luke Griffith, Craig Jones
Dan Manasiou, Gordon Ryan, Nicky Rodriguez,
Elvira Karppinen
Additional Areas To Watch
Some other things I want to watch for are supine guard vs sitting guard. Recently wrestling up has become more popular, which favors a sitting guard. Leg locks have also traditionally come from sitting guard also, but there are other entries now too. Spline guard has been the standard in no gi for about 10 years now, but recently it seems to have lost a bit of its effectiveness. For years this type of flexible, supine guard was almost impenetrable, but in the last few years more and more people have been getting passed. That said more people have experience with a supine guard and sitting guard generally takes more energy. I'm interested to see which is more common at ADCC.
The mount position is also something I'll have my eye out for. A few years ago some people considered the mount useless in no gi and they would try to immediately get to the back once there. In the last year or 2 however things have changed. More people are taking this position seriously and have been using it to submit and punish opponents. Gordon Ryan has been the most successful by far from this position, but I've seen many others trying to use it now. I'm interested to see if more people add this to their game.
I'm interested to see if "seesaw" sweep tactics are effective or not. Over the last 2 years I haven't seen them work too well, but at the highest level perhaps things are different. A very popular ADCC strategy has been to pull guard right before the points period. Then sweep your opponent for 2 points and win. In the past this has been a very solid strategy that many people used to win the whole tournament. From what I saw at the trials events this wasn't a particularly successful strategy anymore. People seemed to have trouble sweeping their opponents and either got their guards passed or went to OT, where they ended up losing when they couldn't pull guard. I'm interested to see if this tactic will work at ADCC or if this strategy is dead.
This year there are also quite a few new faces and younger competitors. This might be a year of change and for many divisions it will interesting to see who ends up on the podium. The older competitors are looking to stop that however. Will there be a changing of the guard or will these youngsters be put in their place. I'm personally hoping that there is a bit of a change and with it comes more exciting grappling. The younger generation seems to be more adventurous and less focused on point/decision victories. I don't know if it is just their youth, but there seems to be a cultural shift where many of them don't want to have boring matches. I hope this is the future of the sport.
Overall
I just hope the event itself is good. I think this is the most hype I've ever seen around ADCC. Mo Jassim has been talking up the event for a while now and there seems to be some big sponsors this year. A lot of people will have eyes on this event, so I'm hoping that everything goes well. First Flograppling needs to make sure the stream is working properly and there are no technical difficulties during the broadcast. I'd hate to see a great event be marred by production mistakes. Second the athletes have to come through and make the event worth watching. I know a lot of the fighters are just focused on winning, but perhaps there should be some thought given to the bigger picture. If this event is terrible sponsors might not show up next time. Even on a personal level, you can't really sell many DVDs or seminars based on stalling. 3 heel hooks completely changed Lachlan Giles' career trajectory and the same could happen to multiple athletes here if they stick their neck out, instead of trying to stall their way to a medal.
I hope this will be the start of a new era of grappling with more exciting matches, money and promotion. Everything is set up for this to be a homerun, but now everyone involved will need to make sure things happen the way they are supposed to. I'm looking forward to seeing how everything unfolds.
Who The Readers Have Winning
Over the last few months I've been posting breakdowns of the various divisions and I thought I'd show who you, the readers, voted for to win each division. If you want to see the betting odds watch this video by the grappling rewind.
-88kg Tye Ruotolo(20.79%), Matheus Diniz(17.82%), Izaak Michell(17.82%)
-99kg Craig Jones(58.97%), Kaynan Duarte(18.8%), Nicholas Meregali(11.97%)
+99kg Gordon Ryan(84.39%), Nick Rodriguez(5.78%), Felipe Pena(3.47%)
-60kg Ffion Davis(27.06%), Brianna Ste-Marie(15.15%), Mayssa Bastos(15.15%)
+60kg Kendall Reusing(50%), Rafaela Guedes(17.65%), Amy Campo(14.71%)
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