The Year in Nogi Grappling 2024 Pt.2

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2024 is over and we are starting a new exciting year for grappling. Here in part 2 let's talk more about the stats, specifically the highest percentage subs, takedowns, passes, sweeps and positions. If you want to see how these stats compare to last year you can take a look at those stats here.  For the highest percentage techniques I excluded all techniques with less the 5 completions, so the list wasn't filled with weird techniques that were only done once. Now let's get to the stuff you're here for.

Adele had an amazing breakout year


Submissions


15% completion rate. There were 2495 attempts and 329 submissions

  1. Kneebar - 27.2%
  2. RNC - 25.7%
  3. Anaconda - 22.7%
  4. Darce - 22.5%
  5. Inside Heel hook - 21.2%


You can see the most common submissions in part 1, but here we have the top 5 highest percentage subs. I was a bit shocked that the kneebar was #1 as it wasn't even on the list last year. I wouldn't have guessed this, but I think we are coming to an era where the hegemonic rule of the heelhook is over and people are starting to see the utility of other leg locks. People are often so worried about the inside heelhook that they'll completely straighten their leg and expose themselves to the kneebar. 




Surprisingly the anaconda and darce made appearances this year. I think 2 or 3 of those anaconda chokes were from Ronaldo Jr. and that just shows that having a specialty technique can really give you an edge. 


The inside heelhook and RNC were expected to be on here and I think they have been every year since I've done this. Not only are they some of the highest percentage submissions, but they are also 2 of the most common.


Takedowns


31% completion rate. There were 1627 attempts and 506 takedowns.


  1. Bodylock - 51.7%
  2. Mat Return - 48.1%
  3. Duck Under - 48%
  4. Throw-by - 35%
  5. Kani Basami - 34.8%

The bodylock offers an amazing amount of control and once you get it there are numerous ways to finish the takedown. Although it can be hard to get the bodylock, once you get it, you don't need an amazing amount of skill to finish the takedown, making it a great move for people who aren't all that skilled on the feet. The mat return is similar, but I should note that I counted any type of drag down, lift, etc from the back that wasn't a suplex, is counted here. 

The 2 surprising ones here were the duck under and the kani basami. The duck under is a bit more technical and athletic based than most of the takedowns we see in BJJ, but the people that can do them well are making great use of them. I'm also shocked the kani basami is working this well and as far as I remember nobody got their leg broken with it this year. I should note that I also include variations of it such as the victor roll and the jonsey tilt in these stats.


Most common takedowns.

  1. Single Leg
  2. Double Leg
  3. Uchimata
  4. Mat Return
  5. Snap Down
 
This is pretty much what I expected except for the uchimata. More and more people seem to be using this as a counter and since it is coming it at 3, it is obviously working well. Mat returns might be something that people should spend more time on as well since it is in the top 5 for both the most common and the highest percentage takedowns.






Sweeps



36% completion rate. There were 1160 attempts and 423 sweeps.


  1. Sub Sweep
  2. Bodylock
  3. Roll over sweep
  4. Armdrag
  5. Ankle pick

Some of these sweeps maybe a bit unfamiliar to you since I had a hard time coming up with proper names for them. The sub sweep is simply any sweep that comes from a submission attempt. This could be an omoplata that the opponents rolls out of or a heelhook attempt that the someone drops to their butt to defend. These were the highest percentage sweeps and more people should look into using their submissions this way since they are so effective. 

The roll over sweep is just a sweep where you roll over backwards and end up on top of the opponent. I think balloon sweeps are the most well known, but the shaolin sweep is another example. Most of these sweeps happened when the top person over extended themselves forward and the guard player was able to take advantage of their poor balance. 


Most common sweeps.
  1. Sub Sweep
  2. Single Leg
  3. Roll over sweep
  4. Hook sweep
  5. Half guard sweep

The sub sweep is at the top of both list, which to me is significant. Not only that, but this is the 2nd year in a row this has happened. This is an area that doesn't seem to be talked about much outside of the omoplata, but the effectiveness of it is hard to deny. I think this might be a greatly overlooked aspect of BJJ that someone could use to bring the sport to a new level(or at least themselves). 

At number 2 we see the single leg and that should remind everyone of just how powerful wrestling up can be. There are also 2 more traditional sweeps on here as well, the hook sweep and the halfguard sweep. These old school techniques still work as well even at the highest levels. 





Passes


24% completion rate. There were 2001 attempts and 480 passes.

  1. Float pass - 46.4%
  2. Cradle pass - 45.5%
  3. 3/4 Mount pass - 43.6%
  4. Sub pass - 41.4%
  5. Knee circle pass - 31.3%

I was surprised but happy when I saw these results. The float pass has made a comeback, but most of the time it isn't in the form that we saw Gordon Ryan using in 2017. Now it is mostly used from butterfly halfguard in the style that has been popularized by Jozef Chen. There are other variations as well, but overall more people are starting to incorporate legwork into their passing. 

The cradle pass was also a bit surprising, but it didn't actually have that many attempts. For years people have been talking about it, but this seems to be the first time people have actually tried to use it. Another one here is the sub pass, which is a pass that is the result of someone trying a submission. This sometimes happened from leg locks, but other times came from diving kimuras or guillotines.
 

For those wondering what a knee circle pass is


The most common passes
  1. Half guard pass
  2. Toreando
  3. Knee slice
  4. Bodylock
  5. Smash pass

The halfguard pass being most common shouldn't be too surprising, but I was surprised that the toreando made it to number 2. The rest of the list is what I expected. It is a bit surprising that none of the most common passes are on the highest percentage list though. 


Positions


14.6% of positions were converted to submissions.


  1. Back Control - 34.8%
  2. Saddle -19.5%
  3. 50/50 - 17%
  4. Mount - 8.2%
  5. Side Control - 2.8%

This list is about what you'd expect. The back is always king, but I think even in 2024 people put too little emphasis in leglock positions and as you can see here they took up the next 2 spots. Over the last 4 years or so the mount has come back into favor and you can see it here at 4. However if we compare this to 2023 you'll see that the 2 leglocking positions have moved up in effectiveness, while mount and sidecontrol moved down. For the mount it was a slight decrease, but for sidecontrol, its effectiveness was cut in half. I don't know the reason for this, but it happened. 






Stat Analysis & Conjectures


One area that stood out for me was the interplay between submissions and positional advancement. Submissions were not only finishing matches, but also being used to pass guard and sweep. This is something that people go over occasionally, but I think it is an area that could use more study. The fact that it was the highest percentage and most common sweep this year says something. I think most people have been doing this intuitively, but I think there is a way to work on these sweeps or passes more systematically and perhaps we'll see that in coming years. 

There is a strange trend happening with armlocks. They seem to have decreased over time and I'm not sure exactly why. This year the armbar was the only arm attack to make it into the top 10 most common subs and none of them were in the top 5 highest percentage subs. Perhaps next year things will change, but right now arm attacks are lagging behind chokes and leglocks. 

One big question in grappling right now is, should you pull guard to standup until you get the takedown. This data unfortunately doesn't have any clear answers. Sweeps had a 36 completion rate while takedowns had a 31% completion rate. Normally I might say that would make pulling guard better, but when you look at the different rulesets you see that some penalize you for pulling guard, which negates the small sweeping advantage. In IBJJF competitions I think it might be slightly advantageous to start from guard as their judging has historically slightly favored the guard player, while ADCC judging has slightly favored the top player. Overall there are too many different rulesets and personal factors to really say one is better than the other in general.

Another thing to think about from a teaching point of view is what to focus on. These stats often just show trends and I'm not behind taking these as being prescriptive. However there seems to be certain techniques that get overlooked that have showed up here. As mentioned before the sub sweep is something that people of all ages and levels could work on. Mat returns seem like something that most people could do, but from what I've seen there is more time spent on other standing techniques. I think this also shows that it isn't a waste to show people leg lock positions early and have them start working ankle locks, kneebars, etc. Leglocks are no longer niche moves, but instead a fundamental aspect of modern nogi grappling that you can't ignore. However the idea that there is no point of using leglocks besides heelhooks seems to also have been debunked. There is a whole world of leglocks outside of the inside and outside heelhook that people are exploring and I think this is helping keep things fresh, while also pushing the sport forward. 




Overall



2024 was a great year for grappling and hopefully 2025 will be even better. There were some surprising results with the stats and some new entries for the highest percentage techniques. I think this shows that some things aren't actual stable and many things in BJJ go through trends. However it seems like there are 2 techniques that seem fairly stable and those are the RNC and the inside heelhook. Those have been on top for years at this point and might be the only 2 subs I think every BJJ pro should become proficient with. 

I think the biggest story of 2024 was the overall rise of professional Nogi grappling. There were good shows before, but CJI came into being and had perhaps the best grappling event of all time. PGF and AIGA stepped up their production, talent level and prize money. FPI has committed itself to grappling and with the force of the UFC behind it, I'm expecting good things. A year ago I doubt anyone knew Ryan Aitkin, but he was about to make enough to live off of solely through BJJ prize money. More and more people are able to live as full-time pros and hopefully that will turn into good matches. So far things are going well and I hope we keep going with this same trajectory in 2025. 




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