This is a match I've been looking forward to for a while. It was supposed to happen about a month ago, but was postponed. That's good for me though because I can do this breakdown.
Craig has looked better and better over the years and now can be considered the most dangerous man in Nogi grappling. He has an extremely high submission rate and relentless goes for the finish. Of course his attack of choice is the inside heelhook, but he might be just as good with the RNC. That said his front headlock game is also strong and he's shown that he's no slouch with armbars, Caio Terra footlocks, triangle chokes and kneebars.
What makes Craig most dangerous however is the fact that he can attack from almost anywhere and the finishes come quickly without warning. He isn't really a positional player who takes his time by advancing position. When he sees something he goes for it, but unlike others who often get sloppy and miss the sub, Craig often ends the match with one quick decisive move. He might be the most precise BJJ submission artist currently competing.
Tye has improved exponentially over the last few years. He has not only improved technically, but because he's so young he's gotten much stronger also. His best submission is probably the darce, however I think his best skill overall is his passing. He's very fast and can chain together his passes perhaps better than anyone in No-gi grappling today. This is bolstered by his seemingly endless cardio which let's him put a pace on his opponents that few can match.
On top of all of this is the fact that Tye has an "X factor". We really don't know what his weakness is, or where he is uncomfortable. Previously it was his leglock defense. In recent matches anyone who has attacked his legs hasn't been able to do anything and many have been counter attacked. The same can be said about those who have tried to put him on bottom and pass his guard or wrestle with him. If he has a weakness people haven't been able to find it.
Keys to Victory
I feel like this match will depend on momentum. Craig and Tye are opposites in a way and whoever can set the pace will most likely win. Tye will know more about Craig than Craig will know about him. I believe they both trained at Mo Jassim's post ADCC camp, however because of Tye's age I wouldn't be surprised if his game has changed since then. I don't think Craig can rely on any info he learned from that experience. By the same token, Tye could ask teammate Ronaldo Jr about Craig, but I don't think Ronaldo could give him much info except for "He's really good at leglocks". I think we will know within 5 min how this match will end.
Craig is very precise and can end things at any time. He doesn't rely on wearing people down or methodically moving between positions. He strikes fast and hard, which his opponents don't see coming. He punishes people for being careless and once he has people in position he is extremely good at finishing. On the other hand, I'm not sure if he can come from behind and win. Most of the time he wins quickly and when someone stifles him he has problems over coming it. The Mattias Diniz fight is one example(I know people will bring up Mason Fowler to counter this). I think he also has problems when he can't get to his favorite positions. The closest person to Tye's style that Craig has faced is Ronaldo Jr and he was able to handle him fairly easily. However the main difference between them is that Tye has much better leglock defense and isn't afraid to lose position(he is also much more comfortable at No-gi).
Tye on the other hand really opens up his game and isn't afraid to try something. He is wild and hard to predict. He doesn't seem to be afraid to jump into danger. He usually tries to overwhelm people with passing, takedowns and sub attempts. Most of his opponents look beat down and exhausted after facing him. This wild style is fun to watch, but it is also reckless. His technique is very good, but he often relies on his quickness and reaction speed to get himself out of trouble. Since he's trained from the time he was a small child some of these reactions are second nature to him, but there are only so many times you can put yourself in danger. His reckless cost him in his match with Kennedy Maciel. Tye has fought Nicky Ryan and Oliver Taza before and beat them both without much trouble. Although both of them have very similar styles to Craig, Craig seems to be much better and securing his positions and is a much more dangerous finisher than either of them.
This is an interesting stylistic clash that I think it will be very exciting. Usually I'd talk about how each person should alter their strategy to beat the other, but in this case I think whoever alters their strategy will end up losing. If Tye tries to be more cautious I think it will just give Craig more time to think and figure out a way to sub him. If Craig tries to be more aggressive and throws multiple subs at Tye he will gas himself out. As I said above, I think we'll know how this match will end up within 5min. If Tye is passing and putting pressure on Craig for the first 5min with no push back, I think Tye will end up slowly breaking him down. It will most likely earn Tye a decision win or a late sub. If Craig manages to almost catch Tye in the opening minutes then I think the finish will be inevitable. I see this as a fight between Jin(Jones) and Mugen(Ruotolo) from Samurai Champloo. If nothing else it will be a fun and highly interesting match.
Match preview - Jones in blue and Ruotolo in red
Comments
Post a Comment