Let's take a look at the big boys in the +99kg division. Historically this has been the least skilled and exciting division, but this year things might have changed. Quite high level competitors are in here now and I think this division will be much more technical than before. On top of that 2 of the favorites for this division are now gone. Kaynan Duarte moved down 1 division and Buchecha is currently focused on MMA and won't be competing. We'll definitely be getting a new champion and with all the new blood I think this division could be very interesting this year. Now let's take a look at the competitors.
Divisional breakdowns
If you haven't read them already, check out the breakdowns for the other divisions below. Just click on the links below for each division.
Competitors
Now let's take a look at who is in this division. Keep in mind things might change before the tournament.
Gordon Ryan
Gordon Ryan has been winning everything he's entered for a while now. He's moved up and is trying to win in the +99kg division. If he can accomplish this I believe he will be the first person to win ADCC is 3 different divisions.
Gordon has a slow and steady style that he uses to take people into deep waters and drown them. Recently he has been playing from the top more and smashing people with pressure. From the top he usually starts with speed passes, but once his opponents defend he switches to pressure passing. He is one of the few people in grappling currently who likes using the mount, but he is equally effective from the back.
Gordon's strengths are his technique and his mindset. He is very confident and this allows him to open up his game and perform on a level that others can't out of fear. This isn't false confidence however and his technical knowledge gives him an advantage against his opponents in most positions. When it doesn't he can easily just switch positions and resume overwhelming his opponents.
Its hard to find weaknesses in his game, but 1 area could be his standing wrestling. He has improved this aspect over the years, but he isn't particularly fast or explosive. It is definitely possible for his opponents to take him down and if they can avoid being submitted afterward they could win a decision. On top of that he hasn't been particularly active recently and ring rust might be a factor.
He's going to be hard to beat and has to be the favorite in this division. One advantage his opponent's have is that there is a lot of tape to study on him, so if they put their mind to it they can figure out how he's been beating people in certain positions. Gordon almost always seems focused however and rarely if ever has an off day.
Nick Rodriguez
Nicky Rod is the silver medalist from the last ADCC championship and now he's back looking for gold. Previously he was mostly a wrestler with little BJJ experience, but now he has been working full time for years on his BJJ and should be much more confident in grappling exchanges.
Nicky relies on his athleticism to break his opponents and overwhelm them. His quick takedowns, passes and back takes could be a problem for anyone in this division. He has also added very sharp bodylock passing to his arsenal and that will make him even more dangerous.
One thing that Nicky is good at is that he knows how to win and he seems to work well under pressure. Combined with his athleticism, he'll be difficult to handle. Things that he might have been caught with 2 years ago are likely not to be holes in his game anymore. He has rounded out his game, so it won't be so easy to catch him with something he's never seen before.
Nicky is more experienced, but his competition is as well. He doesn't have the element of surprise anymore, so people are going to training specifically on how to beat him. His game isn't as broad as most other people in this category, so he might not be able to adapt.
Nicky seems as strong, fast and explosive as before, so he might be able to blow his opponents out of the water with that along with his newly developed skills. On the other hand he has dropped a couple of matches recently and that might signal that people are figuring out his game. I guess we'll find out at ADCC.
Felipe Pena
Felipe is the former absolute champ and moves up to this division to challenge Gordon Ryan. During the last ADCC he didn't compete in his division and only did the super fight against Andre Galvao.
Felipe is a master at taking the back and can be very tricky from top or bottom. He will most likely be at a weight disadvantage, but should have a speed advantage. Felipe can move like a smaller fighter and do moves such as berimbolos that are unusual at this weight class.
Felipe's game could cause problems for the larger fighters who aren't used to someone who moves quickly towards their backs. His game seems well suited to beat larger opponents and I'm sure he will train with some bigger people to get ready.
One thing that worries me is his lack of no-gi competition. He hasn't done much no-gi recently and in his last outing he looked rusty. If he doesn't shake some of that off and get back into fighting shape, he's going to have a short day at ADCC. In his last ADCC appearance his cardio seemed a bit questionable as well.
Felipe will be doing a match with Gordon before ADCC, so this might help get back into the no-gi mind set, but if he loses badly it might cause him to be gun shy during the tournament.
Joao Gabriel Rocha
Joao is a long time competitor and ADCC veteran. He is a former ADCC silver medalist and is one of the biggest competitors in this weight class. He has a lot of experience and unfortunately spent much of his career in the shadow of Buchecha. That won't be a problem now though and this could be Joao's year to shine.
Joao is comfortable everywhere, but I think he a little bit better from top position. He was fairly good takedowns and takedown defense, but his standup game is mostly reactive. He waits for his opponent to make the first move and then he takes advantage of it. From the top he is good at using his weight, but isn't opposed to using a bit of speed as well, which is a little unusual for people in this weight class,
Joao is going to be a problem for anyone with his size and skill. He is hard to move around, but he has quick reflexes, so if you come at him too hard he will most likely reverse you. He seems to have a large arsenal of submissions also, so it will be hard to predict exactly what he's going to come at you with. As a veteran he will also know how to work the rules in his favor, which might allow him to edge out some of the younger less experienced competitors.
A problem Joao might have is that he sometimes takes a while to get started. If he spends the match feeling out his opponents and trying to be strategic, he might not come out on top. He also has a history of dropping the ball and not being able to win when the pressure is on. ADCC is a game of inches and competitors can't afford to make small mistakes. He also hasn't had a no-gi match in a while I believe, so he will need to do some extensive training to try to catch up to the people that have been training and competing regularly on the no-gi scene.
Joao is a good dark horse pick and if he can put everything together he can definitely win. He had a close match with Gordon Ryan a few years ago and if he can build on the skills he showed there, he will be very dangerous.
Victor Hugo
Victor is one of the youngest people in this division, but he is already a gi and no-gi world champion. Despite Victor being a no-gi world champion he is actually more of a gi competitor. He has been trying to change this and he has been competing more in no-gi competitions. He should be one of the largest fighters in this division and has a unique style.
With his large size and build you'd think Victor Hugo would be a top pressure passer. He can do that, but he is mainly a bottom player with a very flexible open guard. This might throw off a lot of the other players in this division since it is rare to go against someone that plays this style that is so heavy. He also will attack the legs with various leg locks, although he mostly stays away from heel hooks. Victor will most likely catch many people off guard as they try to smash him from the guard. He can invert quickly to catch leg locks or take the back. He can also use his strength to wrestle up from the bottom. This makes him hard to game plan for. He has a submission rate of over 50% and is dangerous from almost everywhere.
Victor doesn't have tons of experience in no-gi and can be hot and cold. He does have a bit of ADCC experience, but I don't know if it will be enough. He also doesn't have much experience with heel hooks and that could hurt him.
If Victor can stay focused and balance using his size along with his flexible guard game he will be a handful.
Roberto "Cyborg" Abreu
Cyborg is a former ADCC champion and one of the most experienced competitors. He is a 6 time No-gi world champion and on top of his ADCC gold, he also has 1 silver medal and 3 bronze medals. Nobody else has experience like that and he is going to try to leverage that to help him get to the top of this division.
Cyborg much like Victor Hugo has a surprisingly flexible guard game which he can use to defend himself on bottom. Just because you put him on his back doesn't mean things are going to be easy. Unlike Victor Hugo Cyborg is incredibly physical and loves to mix it up on the feet and grind people from top position. He has good takedowns and isn't afraid to batter people on the feet with clubbing collar ties, snap downs and shoving. The downside of this is that he uses a lot of energy during his matches and since he is one of the older fighters I don't know if he can win multiple matches if he's going 100% all the time. Cyborg has also had some problems with leglocks in the past and perhaps he's fixed these holes, but sometimes its hard to teach an old dog new tricks. He has tons of experience, but he's going to have trouble implementing a new strategy and everyone in this division knows exactly what he's going to do.
Cyborg might be the oldest person in the division and in ADCC in general, but he still appears to be in great shape. He seems as strong and explosive as ever and he has tons of experience. He knows what it takes to win, so he shouldn't be overlooked.
Haisam Rida
Haisam is somewhat new and this will be his first ADCC appearance. He has only moved to the US recently and doesn't have the accolades of some of the other competitors. He did come in 3rd at the WNO championship tournament last year, so he does have experience against other high level players. He is very tall, fast and supposedly strong. He is going to be hard to prepare for and if he's "on" he will be able to surprise a lot of people. At the WNO championship he shocked the world when he finished Orlando Sanchez.
Haisam is very dynamic and has surprisingly good technical grappling. He is slightly better from the top, but his bottom game is also very good. He uses his long legs and arms to his advantage and I think many people will be surprised at how well he moves for someone his size. He also has very good killer instinct when it comes to submissions, so he is always a threat. His weakness seems to be leg locks and he has lost a number of times to them. He needs to fix this, but this problem has been around for years and he still hasn't found the remedy. One problem he will have is the fact that his legs are so long he will need almost perfect leg defense, but if he wants to win against the leg hunters in this division he needs to put in the work. Another problem is that he's hot and cold. When he is at 100% he is almost unstoppable, but we don't always know who we'll get when he competes.
Haisam is very talented and when he's "on" he is difficult to stop. On top of that his size will be hard to deal with. He could surprise a lot of people with his performance here and take his career to the next level.
Orlando Sanchez
Orlando is a former ADCC champion who has lots of experience. He is also one of the veterans of this division who should know the rules well. He is notoriously difficult to score on. He is extremely strong, but also short which makes him hard to takedown. On top of that he is surprisingly fast and nimble. Orlando knows how to win and can give anyone a hard time.
This division is wrestling heavy and Orlando is difficult to wrestle. His stature is going to help him avoid most shots and if he gets on top he'll be hard to sweep or submit. This turtle like defense is what won him his ADCC title and I'm sure it will frustrate the other players this time around as well. Orlando can also be patient and won't be rushed into making a mistake. Orlando has a lot of experience, but he also has a lot of miles on him at this point. He lost twice at the WNO championship which was a bit shocking and might make people wonder if he can continue to compete on this level. Orlando is a bit one dimensional, so if that dimension isn't working he could be in big trouble.
Orlando knows how to win and no matter what you think of his style, you can't say he's an easy match up. He shouldn't be overlooked and could definitely spoil the chances of the favorites in this division.
Josh Saunders
Josh is an ADCC trials winner from Australia. He is a relatively unknown purple belt, but he's going to try to change that. He's very large and quite athletic. This is his first ADCC and I know he's going to be hungry to go out there and prove himself.
Josh seems to be mostly a top player that has good instincts and submission skills. He isn't afraid to stand and uses his physicality well. He seems to be a bit limited, but he's good at what he knows and luckily the +99kg division isn't always the most technical weight class. For someone so big he seemed to have surprisingly good cardio. He might be at technical disadvantage against most of the other people in this division though. He did well in the Asian trials, but the level at ADCC will be much higher and thus he might need some extra training and study to make sure he doesn't get knocked out in the first round.
Never underestimate people who are young and hungry. Josh has nothing to lose and that can be very dangerous. He seems to be well training and being so new to the sport will give him the flexibility to change his game before the tournament and learn some new tricks.
Heikki Jussila
Heikki is a ADCC trials winner from Finland. He is a BJJ black belt and appears to compete in freestyle wrestling. He's done the trials more than once, so he should have a good understanding of the rules and tactics that are needed to win in the ADCC format.
His wrestling background should help him and if you're looking to wrestle, this is the division for you. One advantage he'll have is being virtually unknown. If he can use this element of surprise, he could catch people off guard and get the upset win. Craig Jones, Lachlan Giles, Marcelo Garcia, etc did this and if he has some secret move up his sleeve he can catapult himself into grappling stardom. That said, he has to be a huge underdog and he will really need to up his game if he wants to compete with others on this level.
Heikki will have the benefit of people not knowing his game. He might be able to surprise some people are catch them unaware. Hopefully he is working with a good team to prepare himself for this tournament.
Dan Manasoiu
"Big" Dan won the European ADCC trials and is hoping to take that momentum into the tournament. He was recently featured on the "who's next" reality show and has raised his profile. Now that people know who he is, he's going to have to prove he should be there. He's been training with John Danaher and Gordon for years now, so he's used to the type of professional training that is needed at this level. He is also perhaps the tallest person in the tournament and one of the heaviest.
Dan has an unusual style for this division and this could work to his benefit. He's primarily a leglocker and in this division there are a number of people with somewhat questionable leglock defense. He is skilled with his entries and moves more like a lightweight than the typical heavy weight. At the European trials he also showed some wrestling skills and with his size he could be quite dangerous. He doesn't have a lot of experience at this level and we don't know how he will fare against those with leglock defense. He looked great at trials, but lost by submission on "Who's next" to Andrew Tackett who is almost 100lbs smaller than him.
Dan has a great team around him and that should help him prepare. His size will be a great asset if he uses it. In the past he hasn't utilized it to the extent he could have, but if he can blend that with his impressive bottom game, he should do very well.
John Hansen
He is the ADCC North American trials winner and he's looking to make waves at the tournament. He is a bjj blackbelt and I believe he is currently training at Pedigo submission fighting. This is his 2nd time at ADCC and he'll be looking to learn from his mistake and get on the podium this time.
John is primarily a guard player and his long legs help him elevate him opponents and get under them. His game is very well rounded and he is roughly equal in all areas. He has a very good back attack and he does have some killer instinct, which makes him dangerous. He has had problems in the past with competition at this level and he's going to need to step it up to hand with many of there other fighters. It looks like he's training hard, so hopefully we see John Hansen 2.0.
John has experience and now that he knows the level of ADCC he'll be able to adjust his training to prepare himself properly. He has a very good base to work with and if he can add 1 or 2 more skills he can make it onto the podium.
This is Kyle's first ADCC appearance and he's looking to upset some people with his unique style. Kyle is a ADCC North American trials winner and 10th planet black belt. He is training with other competitors such as Keith Krakorian and Geo Martinez, so he should have a solid training camp to get himself ready for this event.
Kyle Boehm is large, strong and skilled. He is what I'd call a modern American grappler. He goes after leglocks and the back. He's a good finisher who's game is mostly based on those 2 positions. Despite his size he is technical and he can surprise people if they take him lightly. He has very good heel hooks and is mostly a bottom player. He has a 57% submission rate and constantly goes for the submission. One thing that might hurt him is his lack of positional skills and wrestling. If he can't get the sub in regulation there is a good chance he will lose the wrestling exchange in OT. Kyle will need to iron out the problem if he wants to hit the podium.
Kyle looked good at the trials and seems to have improved his wrestling a bit. With another trick up his sleeve he might be able to do some damage in this division. He has the skills and the size. All he needs to go now is put everything together.
Roosevelt Sousa
Roosevelt recently received his black belt and is looking to make a splash at ADCC. He won the South American ADCC trials and was one of the only people in those trials consistently going to leg locks.
Roosevelt is one of the few Brazilians who seems to be a leglock specialist. He's proficient in a variety of leglocks and doesn't focus solely on heel hooks. He can play from the top and bottom and he goes for kill. He looked very good at trials and should have some momentum coming into ADCC. One question mark about him is how he will look against people at this level. At the ADCC trials his opponents didn't put up too much defense against his leg attacks, but there are a number of people in this division who will be able to escape or counter him. If they do, what will he do next. He's relatively untested and he might need to make sure his game and mindset is ADCC ready.
He's looked great so far, but will he be able to continue these impressive performances at the highest level. Roosevelt will need to use everything in his arsenal to get past some of these competitors, so hopefully he's training hard and studying.
Gutemberg seemed to take some time off from BJJ competition and the buzz around him faded in the last few years. He was watching the ADCC South American trials and suddenly felt inspired to try it himself. The next week he went to the 2nd trials and won impressively.
Gutenberg is very very complete and is dangerous from all areas. He can wrestle, play guard, pass, leglock, etc. He won the trials using mainly leglocks and wrestling. When he's on he looks almost unstoppable. However he is often inconsistent and can always "turn it on" and "stay on". He's training with GFT, which is a good team, but I don't know if they'll be able to help him much with ADCC prep. He really needs high level, large, no-gi training partners to push him and a experienced no-gi coach to help him prepare.
He has the skills, but will he be able to put it all together. He has the wrestling, passing, top game, guard and leglocks to make it to the top of the division. Does he have the strategy and tactical ability to do so? These are what we need to see during ADCC.
Breakdown
During the trials this division mostly consisted of points wins and decisions. Luckily I think most of the people in the actual ADCC tournament are more submission oriented. Traditionally this division has had more arm and neck attacks with very few leg attacks. This year however there are quite a few leglock specialist, so we'll see how that turns out. During the trials leg locks were very effective in this division, but that could be due to the lack of leglock defense in the trials. There were nearly as many leg finishes as neck submissions. At ADCC level however I imagine things will be a bit different. I'm expecting a lot of pressure passing and most likely wrestling, but there are a surprising number of guard pullers among the heavyweights this year. I'm guessing more than a few people will also being going after the legs in this division which is something we haven't seen before from the big men at ADCC.
The biggest potential match in this division is between Gordon Ryan and Felipe Pena. They have a long history and they'll have their much awaited rematch here(possibly). Of course they are going to have another rematch a month before at WNO, but this will be under ADCC rules which might be more interesting.
Gordon has to be the favorite for this event, but the other spots are up in the air. Nicky Rod is the previous silver medalist of this division, but he has lost his last 2 matches and doesn't have a lot of momentum coming into ADCC. Cyborg is always a safe bet also and he's been on a slight streak. Everyone else has either been away from no-gi competition for a while or is simply untested at this level. I think this division might produce a breakout star and even if they don't win gold they might have a great run like Craig Jones in 2017 or Lachlan Giles in 2019.
Overall
This is the greatest +99kg lineup I've ever seen and I hope all of these people actually make it to this tournament. The heavy weight division is notorious for boring shoving contests, but this year it seems there is a good mix of bottom players to mix things up. The general level of wrestling has also increased a bit, so the types of stalling tactics we've seen before will hopefully be a thing of the past. Although Gordon is the heavy favorite, anything can happen and every ADCC there is a huge upset. The most important thing is that these matches are actually good and with these athletes I believe we can get a lot of great matches. I'm looking forward to the brackets, so I can see the matchups.
Is Damon Ramos a concern?
ReplyDeleteHe could be, but he hasn't been doing many grappling competitions recently. The ones he's done he's lost. Who knows though. He's a former champ so you can't count him out.
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