Today I'm going to talk about the -99kg division for ADCC 2022. We will definitely have a new champion in this division as Gordon Ryan has moved up in weight. Actually him and Kaynan swapped, with Kaynan moving down to - 99kg. There were some other interesting developments such as Craig Jones moving up into this division and Kyle Boehm moving down after qualifying at +99kg. For many of the athletes this will be their first time in this division or in ADCC period. This division is wide open, but the 2 favorites have to be Kaynan Duarte and Craig Jones. They will have some stiff competition though.
Divisional breakdowns
If you haven't read them already, check out the breakdowns for the other divisions below. Just click on the links below for each division.
Competitors
Now let's take a look at who is in this division. Keep in mind things might change before the tournament.
Perttu Tepponen
Perttu is a 2 time ADCC trials champion from Finland. He's looking to do better this time and show off his skills. After winning the 2021 ADCC European trials he is looking for new challenges, which he'll get at ADCC. For many people their first ADCC outing is disappointing, but the second time around they are able to make changes that propel them to the next level. Perttu is looking to do that in 2022.
Perttu can play either top or bottom and isn't afraid to pull guard. From his back he is mostly trying to sweep and get on top. He will attack from anywhere, but mostly looks to keep good position. His versatility will help him in this division against those who only want to play on top.
Perttu's wrestling might not be as strong as some of the others in this division. His athleticism might also be a weak point that others can exploit. On top of that he is untested at this level. He doesn't have wins over any big names, so it is hard to say if he can hang at this level or not.
Perttu will be out to prove he does deserve to be there in September and show his skills. Being underestimated can sometimes be a good thing and if he can surprise people he might be able to quickly rise up the rank like Craig Jones or Marcelo Garcia.
Luke Griffith
Luke is a new addition the the New Wave juijitsu team headed by John Danaher. Luke qualified for ADCC by winning the 2nd European trials event winning the final by submission over Owen Lively. He's a young up and comer with a lot of promise.
Luke seems to primarily be a guard player, but seems to be most dangerous from the back. He plays a similar game to other from New Wave and gravitates towards finishing from the back. This is a great style for ADCC. He has a somewhat slick style that doesn't seem to be based on strength, speed or pressure. He attempts to lure his opponents into traps and then goes for the kill. He seems to have good killer instinct and finishing skills, which will serve him well at ADCC.
His wrestling doesn't seem particularly strong which might be a problem if he goes into overtime. I imagine he will susceptible to stalling. He is also completely untested at this level and hasn't faced anyone on the level of these athletes before. We haven't seen much of Luke, so its hard to say if he has the tools to beat all of the other competitors here or not.
Luke certainly has a lot of talent and he has a great team behind him. The only question is, will that be enough. Many of the other competitors have those same things, but Luke also has the element of surprise and he could end up shocking the world.
Paul Ardila-Ibarra
Paul is fairly athletic and can play on top and bottom. Recently he seems to be favoring the bottom position and as I said his leglocks have been looking very sharp. He was able to counter the smashing style of the other - 99kg athletes fairly easily at the trials. I imagine he will try to repeat this at ADCC and if he can't he still has other tools to rely on.
One problem Paul might have is that I believe he is a full time lawyer. One has to wonder how much time he can devote to training. It didn't seem to effect him at trials, but there will be a big jump in competition between the trials and the actual ADCC tournament. I don't know how effective his leg locks will be against guys like Craig Jones or Kyle Boehm.
Obviously Paul is very good, but will the improvements he made be enough to win this division. He certainly has the skills, but he is up against some stiff competition.
Joao Costa
Joao recently achieved his black belt and is now looking to put his stamp on the sport. He won the South American ADCC trials and is now headed to the big leagues. The trials were his first big win since he received his black belt in June 2021, but he's looking to start to build his legacy here in 2022. He is currently training out of Fight Sports in Miami.
Joao is built like a tank and can easily muscle people around. His short stature will make him hard to move around and he isn't afraid to get physical in exchanges. He keeps a grinding pace and is fairly good at wrestling up from the bottom. He makes sure that no matter the position, things are uncomfortable for his opponents.
This will be a big step up in competition for Joao and he'll need to step things up against this level of competition. He also has a 14% submission rate which means he will have to work hard to every win. He might need to work on his leg lock defense as well just to make sure he isn't caught in something quickly. Another problem might be his wrestling. He has the athleticism, but his standup technique isn't quite there yet.
Joao is a new name, but he could be the person that upsets the division. Not much is known about him and he could surprise people. I'm sure he is working hard to prepare for this competition, so if he makes the proper improvements he can do some damage in this division.
Henrique Ceconi
Henrique just punched his ticket to ADCC 2022 at the South American trials. He was defeated by Joao Costa at the first trials, but came back the next week and won with 4 out of 5 submissions. These trials are his biggest win so far and he's looking to make a name for himself here in 2022. He just had a match against Filipe Pena which he narrowly lost, so that has to give him some confidence going into ADCC.
Henrique has good finishing skills and a 61% submission rate. He is not only good at finishing, but he can also use a variety of submissions which make him very unpredictable. He is comfortable from top or bottom and can be patient. He will wait for the right moment and then strike with speed and power. This could end up surprising many of his opponents.
His strength could also be his weakness. Although he is patient, there are times he waits too long and doesn't pull the trigger. Against Pena he waited until the end to try anything and ended up losing by 2 penalties. Also he is untested at this level. When he goes against these higher level opponents will he be able to take the pressure or will he fold. He has been submitted a number of times and there are competitors in this division who are known for getting people out of here quickly.
Henrique's high sub rate will make him dangerous. He is versatile and crafty enough to make it onto the podium. There are a few things that he is lacking however and we'll see if he can plug those holes before the tournament. He is certainly game and has everything to gain by going out there and putting on a show.
Kyle Boehm
This is Kyle's first ADCC appearance and he's looking to upset some people with his unique style. Kyle is a ADCC North American trials winner and 10th planet black belt. He is training with other competitors such as Keith Krakorian and Geo Martinez, so he should have a solid training camp to get himself ready for this event.
Kyle Boehm is large, strong and skilled. He is what I'd call a modern American grappler. He goes after leglocks and the back. He's a good finisher who's game is mostly based on those 2 positions. Despite his size he is technical and he can surprise people if they take him lightly. He has very good heel hooks and is mostly a bottom player. He has a 57% submission rate and constantly goes for the submission. One thing that might hurt him is his lack of positional skills and wrestling. If he can't get the sub in regulation there is a good chance he will lose the wrestling exchange in OT. Kyle will need to iron out the problem if he wants to hit the podium.
Kyle looked good at the trials and seems to have improved his wrestling a bit. With another trick up his sleeve he might be able to do some damage in this division. He has the skills and the size. All he needs to go now is put everything together.
Vinicius "Trator" Ferreira
Trator has a short compact build that makes him had to manipulate. He often pressures people from the top position and they can find a way to reverse or even stop him. From the bottom position he is also surprisingly tricky and can use somewhat slick guard work at times. He is also more agile than you'd expect for someone his size.
One thing that might hurt him is the fact that he isn't very submission heavy. He often wins by decision and in a long tournament like ADCC this just means more fatigue and wear on your body. It also means more chances for your opponent to catch you. Recently he doesn't seem to have that same momentum and aura he had coming in ADCC 2019. He hasn't looked terrible recently, but he has looked very beatable.
If Trator wants to get back on that podium he might need to tweak his game a bit. With a stronger submission threat he will most likely have an easier path to the finals.
Rafael Lovato Jr.
Lovato is an American BJJ legend and experienced ADCC competitor. He is the 2nd American to ever become a BJJ world champion and is a 3 time Nogi world champion. He is also a former ADCC silver medalist and has competed there multiple times. Since his retirement from MMA he has been doing more grappling matches and is now making his return to ADCC.
Rafael has lots of experience and should know the rules very well. His style is very pressure passing based and he is one of the first people to really exploit the headquarters position to pass the guard. His top pressure will be difficult for anyone in this division to deal with. His guard is also quite good, but he mostly uses it for sweeping. His MMA experience has also improved his takedowns and general athleticism significantly. Despite his age I believe he will be able to hold his own against many of the younger generation stars.
Although he has tons of experience that also comes with some drawbacks. He has what he calls "Timeless" juijitsu and although it is very sharp, it is unlikely to surprise anyone. Most people are going to be ready for his attacks, but he might not be ready for some of the newer attacks the other competitors will throw at him. His style is also very grindy and submission light, so being in his late 30s, one has to wonder if he has the conditioning to go multiple rounds if overtime is included.
Lovato will be looking for another medal and with his MMA enhanced wrestling and smothering pressure he definitely has the tools. Let's see if he can execute against the other athletes in this division.
Kaynan Duarte
Kaynan is one of the most versatile competitors. He passes well, he has a good guard, he can take people down, etc. He also has a high finishing rate and is a threat from multiple positions. He has an almost perfect balance between small man and large man BJJ. In a way his game is much like Gordon Ryan's. He is somewhat slow and methodical, but he is always working towards the finish.
If there is an area that him and Gordon differ in, it would be consistency. Kaynan has dropped the ball multiple times and lost matches that on paper he should have won. He seems to have lapses in judgment during matches, especially with leg locks. In some matches his defense seems great and in others it seems like he has no idea what to do.
Kaynan's results will depend on which Kaynan shows up. After his loss to Tim Spriggs everyone in this division will be coming after his legs. He is going to need bullet proof legs to make it out of this tournament. Luckily he has 2 experts in leglock defense training with him daily in the Ruotolo Brothers. If he can fix this hole as well as the focus issue he will win this division.
Yuri Simoes
Yuri is mostly a top player who uses pressure passing and get past him opponents guard and crush them. He is one of the best passers in this division and even from the bottom he's very skilled. He also has some impressive wrestling and I'm sure his skills are even better now that he has been training for MMA.
Unfortunately it seems Yuri is in a bit of a slump right now. He's been very hot and cold. At one time he would have been the definite favorite, but right now I don't believe that is the case. He also isn't known for his submissions, so any win he gets will be a grind. This could cause him to fade in the later rounds.
Yuri has the experience skills and style to win this division, but he'll need to be focused. He seems to be prioritizing MMA currently and the Grappling scene has been evolving quickly in the last few years. If he's dedicated and studies the new game he can win the whole thing. If he doesn't someone might get him out of here quickly.
Tim was the first WNO heavy weight champion and a previous ADCC North American trials winner. He was also featured recently on the "Who's next" show on flograppling. He seems to have moved on from grappling and will perhaps be starting a career in pro-wrestling. This might be his last grappling competition, so I'm sure he's motivated to go out with a bang. Although I don't think Tim has a wrestling a judo background, he has always worked hard on his standing grappling and as such will have an advantage over many of the competitors in this division.
Tim is mostly a top player, but he has shown an ability to play from the bottom. He seems to be quite strong and can be explosive if he wants to. He has a nasty guillotine choke, which he used to win the North American trials last time. It seems he's not competing as much now, so it is hard to say what his game is like. Previously he didn't have any type of leglock game, but at the WNO championship event he won with an outside heel hook. Tim could surprise people with a new game that people aren't ready for.
Tim has shown holes in his game in the past. Most notably in his leglock game and his game from the bottom. He is very good at defending takedowns, but if he gets put on his back will he be able to return to the top position with being submitted? He also isn't a high percentage finisher, so for him to make it to the podium it might require a lot of mat time which could be exhausting. Also one has to wonder how focused he is if he is looking to change careers.
Tim can definitely do well her. ADCC favors his style and if he stays focused he can used his stand up skills and BJJ to take out many of the other competitors. If he's focused, Tim can end his grappling career on a high note.
Patrick Gaudio
Patrick is a large man and he uses his size well to pressure his opponents. However he has a well developed guard game as well and doesn't mind fighting from there. He has a large variety of submissions in his arsenal and you can't predict how or where he will attack from. He might be one of the strongest people in this division, but he is still very technical as well.
One thing that could hold Patrick back is his lack of finishing ability. He has a 24% submission rate, which means he will most likely have to spend a lot of energy each fight. He has also been submitted a number of times as well. Patrick sometimes seems to have problems with the top ranked guys as well. I'm not sure if this is mental of technical, but if he wants to win ADCC he will need to figure this out.
Patrick definitely has the talent to win. He's shown flashes of brilliance in the past that makes me think he could be a champion. Unfortunately he will need more than flashes if he wants to get on the podium in this division.
Nicholas Meregali
Nicholas is the current gi absolute world champion. At the time of ADCC he will have been working with John Danaher's New Wave team for about 9 months. He seems eager to try no-gi and push his career in a new direction. Nicholas is on of the most talented competitors of his generation and he has a forward moving exciting style that fans love. This ADCC appearance might be only his 2nd no-gi match ever. He's diving straight into the deep end.
Nicholas has now devoted himself to no-gi training and is working with some of the best in the world. He is already a high level grappler, so I imagine he's picking things up easily and he has many other ADCC competitors to train with. His aggressive style should work well in no-gi and it will hard for others to prepare for him.
He has very little experience, so he's somewhat of a wildcard. His guard looks great in the gi, but many of the techniques he uses won't work in no-gi. From the top he could be effective, but his wrestling is nothing to write home about and that could be his undoing. I'm sure he is working on these things, but will he be able to fix all these problems in time.
Elder Cruz
Elder has recently received his black belt and is ready to take things to the next level at ADCC. In the last few years he's really gained momentum and become a name in the grappling world. He came in 2nd place at the North American trails, but was given a spot due to his performances afterwards. He even ended up beating the trials winner in a match following the trials. Not only does Elder have a great BJJ pedigree, but he is also an experienced wrestler.
Elder will have an advantage over everyone in this division when it comes to wrestling. He has competed extensively in pure wrestling. He beat Nicky Rodriguez earlier this year at WNO and even took down Kyle Snyder once. Not only is his standing wrestling very good, but on the ground he has great smothering control. He is an expert at shutting down the guard of bottom players and wearing them out with relentless passing.
On the other hand we haven't seem much of him off of his back. Although he might have superior wrestling to others doesn't mean he can't end up on his back. Once there will he be able to defend himself or get up without getting submitted. Elder also isn't as submission focused as others, so for him to get on the podium in this division he will have to grind through most of his opponents. This could tire him out and that would make his style much less effective.
He has a great style for ADCC, but there are others in this division that are more complete. With a good strategy and proper coaching he could go very far in this division.
Craig Jones
This is Craig's 4th ADCC appearance and now he has moves up to the - 99kg division. This will be an increase in weight for him and he might be one of the smaller people in this division. However that could yield some advantages as well. He is the 2019 silver medalist from the division below and he's hoping to come out with some gold this time. Or maybe silver again just to stay on brand.
Craig has the most submission heavy style on this division and will be very very dangerous. He currently has an 80% submission rate which is frankly absurd and most of the others in this division won't have the leglock defense to stop his attacks. He's been working some of his other skills recently and it seems he is now dangerous from multiple positions.
2 things that might give him problems are, size and wrestling. Craig will be at a size disadvantage against most of the other competitors. His cardio is generally fairly solid, but will it hold up if some of these larger athletes start applying pressure from the top position. Another problem he might have is people avoiding him until OT and forcing him to wrestle. He has been working on his stand up, but will it be enough against larger opponents?
Devhonte Johnson
Devhonte is the current Nogi world champion and a BJJ black belt under Murilo Santana. He is a fairly new black belt and seems to be coming into his own now. His nickname is bones, but it looks like year by year he has put on muscle and now he's looking anything, but weak and skinny. All his hard work has finally paid off and now he has been invited to ADCC 2022.
Devhonte's style favors a combination of speed a pressure passing from the top leading to back takes. He can also play from bottom and wrestle, but he seems to be more effective from top position. He can be very physical and should have the strength to match anyone else in this division. He will be hard for anyone to deal with and his back and forth passing style might exhaust many of the other athletes. He has a knack for shutting down other's games and pressuring them into making mistakes.
Devhonte isn't the greatest finisher and this could cause him to spend more time on the mat than he needs to. This along with his aggressive style might put his conditioning to the test. Along with that he is hardly invincible from the top and he might have trouble staying on top or even getting there in the first place. He can certainly hold his own from the bottom position, but I don't know if he can win multiple matches that way.
Devhonte has shown flashes of brilliance and if he can bring that to ADCC 2022 he'll go far. He has a good coach with him, but I wonder if he has enough larger training partners to help him prepare. He will definitely prove to be a problem for anyone that steps in front of him.
Breakdown
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If we look at the stats we can see that this division is mostly determined by points or decisions. This fits most people's style as they are top pressure passers that don't rely on quick submissions. There are very few armlocks which is surprising and quite a few leg lock wins. After watching many of the trails matches I feel that its not that there are many people going for leg locks, but those that are happen to finish with them. The leg lock defense in this division might be suspect with the exception of a few people. It will be interesting to see how this division plays out because there seems to be 2 styles of competitor here. Top, pressure heavy, slow grinders and bottom playing, leg locking submission hunters. I think it will be interesting to see them go against each other, but if we get 2 pressure heavy top players against each other, the matches might be slow and tedious.
The favorite here has to be Kaynan Duarte. He has won almost everything there is to win and he is the previous champion from +99kg. However there are 2 people that could give him serious problems. Craig Jones lost to Kaynan the last time, but it was fairly close until he had his back taken. Also Craig is very good at leg locks which are Kaynan's weakness. Also Meragali has beaten Kayana in the gi and even though this is nogi, it might be that Meragali just knows how to read Kaynan and has him figured out. On top of that Kaynan has dropped the ball and lost by leg lock to Cyborg and Tim Spriggs recently and they aren't known for leg locks. Paul Ardilla might be able to surprise him and catch him early. All that said Kaynan still has to be the favorite over all of them.
Craig Jones has to be the 2nd favorite in this division despite moving up. Many of these athletes will have problems with his tricky style and may not be able to beat him on a technical level. However Craig has been beaten with stalling tactics multiple times recently and many of the people in thi division are capable of doing that to him. I'm sure he's been working on it, but will it be enough when his opponents have a strength and size advantage.
Everyone else is a toss up and I think anyone could win given the right bracket.
Overall
I think this could be a really interesting and unpredictable division. Anyone could win and I think this could be determined by how things are seeded. It is hard to say how these matches will turn out because there are a number of different styles in this division and I think many of them will be vulnerable to one tactic or another. Another factor is that many of these athletes could tire easily, which could let an underdog win. I think this will be one of the more competitive divisions and I wouldn't be surprised by a large upset.
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