The Year in Nogi Grappling 2025 Pt.2

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In the first part I looked at the most common submissions and how matches ended. In this post let's look at the highest percentage submissions, but also takedowns, sweeps, passes and positions. These are the things the allow you to get to the submissions and it could be argued that they are more important than the submissions themselves. In the last 5-10 years many of the common thoughts have been rewritten and many common assumptions have been disproven by data. Let's take a look at the stats and see if any of your assumptions have been either proven or disproven in 2025. 

Before we get into the stats, I'd like to explain the methodology. First of all I gather all the stats myself, so there is no hidden database where I'm getting all the stats from. I judge the attempts myself and categorize all the moves. I try to be as accurate as possible, but of course I can't catch everything and sometimes I make mistakes. Another thing to keep in mind is that some moves are easy to see when attempted, while others aren't. For example it is easy to miss an Aoki lock attempt and mistake it for an ankle lock. The same can't be said for a cartwheel guard pass. Keep this is mind when looking at the stats. For the highest percentage techniques I excluded all techniques with less the 5 completions, so the list wasn't filled with weird techniques that were only done once. Now let's get to the stuff you're here for.


 

Submissions



229 subs out of 1392 attempts. 16% completion rate.

There were a lot of submission attempts this year, but they mostly fell into the same categories. The most attempted submission was the ankle lock. This is understandable because it is readily accessible, but also it is low risk. Recently there have been some changes to the mechanics as well, so they are becoming a bigger threat as well. In pro BJJ there has also been a shift in rules where more events are using submission attempts to judge who won and I believe this has increased the amount of ankle locks attempted. 

  1. Ezekeil choke (47%)
  2. Aoki lock (34%)
  3. RNC (33%)
  4. Inside heelhook (28%)
  5. Anaconda choke (20%)

The Ezekiel choke came out on top here, but it should be noted that there are 2 versions. The front version Craig Jones often goes for and the arm in version from the back. This stat covers both versions. I was a bit suprised that the Aoki lock came in 2nd, but there was an increase in ankle locks this year, so I'm assuming many of those came off of failed ankle locks. Also it should be noted that they are sometimes hard to see, so any failures might have been missed. The RNC always comes near the top on any type of submission ranking and for good reason. It is reliable and high percentage. It is one of the only submissions that comes near the top year after year. Compared to last year we got 2 new submissions and the RNC, Anaconda and Inside heelhook stayed in the top 5. The RNC and inside heelhook are in the top 5 for the 3rd year in a row and it is safe to say these are some of the most important submissions in the sport.


Most common submissions

  1. RNC
  2. Inside heelhook
  3. Ankle lock
  4. Armbar
  5. Aoki lock
I already went over these in the last post, so you can look at that for more info and commentary. 




Takedowns



370 takedowns and 991 attempts. 37% completion rate.

  1. Kani Basami (58%)
  2. Pancake (50%)
  3. Mat Return (47%)
  4. Kneetap (44%)
  5. Bodylock (39%)

I was a bit shocked the the kani basami was the highest percentage takedown. However just because it is dangerous doesn't mean it isn't effective. Also I should note that I counted the victory roll in with the kani basami. Coming in 2nd is the pancake, which is more of a counter to shots, but it proved to be very effective in 2025. Next was the mat return, which isn't suprising, but it doesn't seem to be emphsiseed as much in training as the single leg or double leg. Perhaps there should be more of a focus on it considering its ranking here. It should also be noted that multiple different takedowns from that back were counted as mat returns instead of a single technique. 

  1. Single leg
  2. Double leg
  3. Mat return
  4. Bodylock
  5. Snapdown/Armdrag


 Sweeps



256 sweeps and 730 attempts. 35% completion rate.

  1. Sub sweep (57%)
  2. Bodylock (56%)
  3. Roll over sweep (39%)
  4. Duck under/Slide by (38%)
  5. Tripod/False Reap (36%)

The sub sweep was number one this time. For those that aren't familiar this is a sweep that comes from a submission attempts. Often times a submission forces a certain defense that you can exploit to get a sweep and that is what this category is. The most famous example is the omoplata, but this year most of the sweeps seemed to have come from leg lock attempts. The second highest percentage sweep was the  bodylock, which is basically a wrestle up, but instead of attacking the legs they grab the upperbody and knock the top person over. The 3rd on this list is the roll over sweep, which is any sweep involving a backwards roll where you throw the person over you. I grouped all of these sweeps together for the sake of convenience, but there are actually a number of them and they proved to be quite useful when people are driving in on the bottom person. Next was the slide by or duck under, which includes wrestle ups, but also the common closed guard sweep where you duck under their armpit and swing around to their back. Finally there was a tie between the false reap and the tripod sweep. We got a tie between old school and new school for 5th place this time. 

  1. Sub sweep
  2. Single leg
  3. Berimbolo
  4. Bodylock
  5. Double leg/Roll over sweep

Passes



311 passes and 1337 attempts. 23% completion rate.

  1. Float pass (58%)
  2. Bodylock pass (37%)
  3. Hip Switch pass (33%)
  4. Smash pass/Longstep pass (32%)
  5. Leg drag (31%)

Here we have float passes coming out on top, which is a bit suprising. I'm guessing this is mostly due to Jozef Chen who has been using this style of passing extensively. Next is the bodylock pass which also includes high tripod passing. Those 2 types of passing proved very effective in 2025 and it seems like a lot more people are starting to use them. 

  1. Halfguard pass
  2. Torreando pass
  3. Bodylock pass
  4. Kneeslice pass
  5. North-South pass


Positions



123 subs from dominant positions and 667 positions achieved without a sub. 16% completion rate.


  1. Back (37%)
  2. 50/50 (18%)
  3. Saddle (16%)
  4. Mount (10%)
  5. Side control (6%)
  6. Knee on belly (0%)

As you'd expect the back came out on top with a surprisingly high 37% finish rate. Leg entanglements came next and then they were followed by mount and then side control. I thought that the mount or side control would come out higher than leg entanglements, but it looks like that wasn't the case. Knee on belly position didn't seem to get any finishes. 



 Action



Here we can see a slight increase in action and watchability compared to last year. It is good to see that the matches are getting better and the things people have tried to do to improve pro grappling are working. 

As far as techniques go it seems like more people are attempting subs, so on average we are seeing 3.1 submission attempts every 5 min of a match. I think this is good, but it also shows that people aren't really setting up their subs properly at all times. That said, from a viewer's perspective it is nice to see people trying to make things interesting and I think it shows that the rules implemented are working as intended. 

Surprisingly, it seems like takedowns actually had the most completions in a 5 min period though. I wouldn't have thought that, but it does seem like more people are attempting to take people down and wrestle these days. 


Stat Analysis & Conjectures

As I said previously the ankle lock seems to have become much more of a threat and it is being finished a lot more than before. Not only that, but people are using it as a transition to work sweeps and setup other leg attacks. My guess is that we will continue to see this next year and more people will start working this and incorporating it into their game. 

Along with the ankle lock I'm expecting more people to start working in the ezekiel choke from the back into their game. It is a great move that that be used when they block the RNC or arm triangle choke. It might not be a great first attack, but it is a powerful follow up that is now proven to work at the highest levels of the sport. 

As far as passing goes it seems that north-south passes are becoming more popular and we will see more of them in the coming year. I also think we might see more float passing. Gordon popularized this a few years ago, but it never seemed to catch on at the pro level until Jozef Chen. I wonder if his influence will be enough to tip it over the top and make it a common technique, or if it will remain a rare technique only used by a few people at the highest level. 

Based on the stats above I think the trend towards more wrestling will continue. In 2025 there were a lot of takedown attempts. Not only were people attempting them, they were also successful. There were more takedowns than sweeps and they were higher percentage. I think this will lead more people to invest in their standup skills and try to incorporate them more into their game. Mat returns and kneetaps and areas that not everyone explores extensively, but they were very effective.

I'm hoping that the events themselves start using stalling penalties more. In 2025 we saw events starting to use stalling calls a bit more to good effect. There is too much stalling from guard and collar tie battles from standing. Something needs to be done to stop this type of play in pro level matches. I think the athletes have done better and now there are a good number of exciting athletes who have stepped things up, so I'm hoping in 2026 the events do the same. 

 

Overall

2025 might be one of the best years ever in grappling. To be honest CJI 2 didn't live up to the hype, the ADCC trials have been somewhat lackluster and there were no other really big events, but overall things were extremely solid. A lot of new people emerged as potential stars and the money in pro grappling has gone up. AIGA, Sapaterio, CJI, etc all offered 6 figure prizes. CJI and UFC BJJ have been putting up events on youtube, so now new fans can see high quality matches for free. Flograppling has also been releasing WNO matches for free on youtube. Hopefully this will attract new fans and allow more people to follow the sport. 


Hopefully 2026 takes this momentum and runs with it. I'm looking forward to the WNO vs Polaris teams event early this year and I hope that will kick off a great 2026. This is also an ADCC year, where we not only have the championships, but also a number of trials. Right now there also appears to be a changing of the guard due to some of the vets not taking matches, being injured, retiring, etc. This is a good chance for younger atheletes to step up and a show the world that they are the next big stars. In 2025 we saw some sparks of magic out of people, but hopefully in 2026 these people can prove they aren't just flashes in the pan and can help build a stronger pro grappling ecosystem this year. 







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