The Year in Nogi Grappling 2025 Pt.1




2025 is wrapping up, so let's take a look at what happened this year in nogi grappling. Just like last year this will come in 2 parts. 2025 Was a big year with a good number of changes. CJI came with a 2nd addition and new rules. UFC BJJ also came and took most of the same format that made CJI 1 popular. Polaris went all in with its own teams format. ADCC trials started up again, but without the fanfare of previous years. WNO continued as it was, but now with more of an emphasis on developing new talent instead of relying on the current big names.

Below you can find some of the stats for 2025. I'll do the finishes/action here and the highest percentage moves in the next post. You can also find a breakdown of some of the trends down below as well. 


 

 

How People Won



If we look here we see that 49% of the matches ended in submission which is great. In general I think that whenever you get more than a third of matches ending with a finish it is good. Most of the finishes were leg locks followed by chokes and finally arm locks. 

When people couldn't get the finish it was mainly decided by decision. However that category does include other things such as EBI over time and it should be noted that many events have stopped using points altogether, so this category might be a bit inflated. 


 


As you can see this was a pretty good year, but overall it is fairly consistent to what we have seen over the years. I think at this point we can start to see some patterns and trends emerge. It seems that the sub %  is hovering a bit below 50% most years. Personally I think that is a good thing and we really can't do much better without significantly altering the rules of the sport. However I do think that certain events are doing better than others in this regard. I'll talk about that more in the "Action" section below.



  


It seems that leg locks beat chokes this year, but looking at the chart it seems like they are always close in the modern era. Arm locks always seem to trail behind by a significant margin. Of course every year is different, but the fact that for the last 4 years we have had similar results tells me something. 

Previously it was commonly said that leg locks would lose their efficacy once everyone knew them, or that they were some sort of fad that would fade away. That doesn't appear to be happening and if anything they are increasing. 

Action


Above you can see the action & watchability stats for all the events I covered in 2025. The average action score for 2025 was 10.89, which is a slight increase over 2024. As for the watchability we had 19.40. This is quite a significant increase compared to 2024. I think this shows that shows and atheletes are listening and trying to make the sport more interesting. As far as events go. UFC BJJ 2 came out on top in terms of watchability. You can watch the whole thing for free on youtube and I suggest you do if you haven't already, but you can also checkout some highlights here.




For those that don't know I'll talk about how I come up with these numbers briefly before I move on. The "Action" score is all techniques/positions landed and attempted added together. Then I divide it into a 5 min intervals, so all the different events can be compared. Basically it shows the average amount of action in a 5 min period. The "Watchability" is the action score adjusted to take into account submission finishes and the ratio of moves completed vs the number attempted. This is a statistic that I came up with that tries to measure how interesting the various events are. 

 

Submissions




We have a new list of the top 10 most common submissions for 2025. The top 2 subs stayed the same as always, but the others got shaken up quite a bit. Take a look below and see, but also take a look at last year's list and compare. 


  1. RNC
  2. Inside heelhook
  3. Ankle lock
  4. Armbar
  5. Aoki lock
  6. Outside heelhook
  7. Arm triangle
  8. Ezekiel choke
  9. Triangle
  10. Kimura

The RNC came out on top as always. I don't there has been a year where that hasn't been number one. The inside heelhook followed and this is also something that we almost always see. In 3rd we had the ankle lock, which is quite the change. It moved up 2 places compared to last year and its cousin the Aoki lock moved up 2 places as well. 

The Ezekiel choke made its way onto the list as well. It should be noted that this is actually 2 different moves. The first is the nogi version of the choke usually done from mount and the second is the version from the back that is sometimes called the Ruotolotine. The other subs are what you'd expect and what we have seen before in previous years. 





Trends

I think the biggest change this year is the the increase in ankle locks. This is likely due the the proliferation of different ankle lock variations. In previous years the ankle lock has been improved in various ways, but in the last 2 years a few variations have popped up that have made finishing even easier. The Woj lock is basically a reverse Aoki lock that that switches up the mechanics a bit and just like the Aoki lock, makes the finish a bit more powerful. Another variation is the side ankle lock or the "Pato lock". This move has made it possible to finish people when they start to spin out of the ankle lock position. Finally the short ankle lock is a powerful variation people can use when you can't get the usual leg position for finishing. Not only is it useful for times you can't get your legs in place, but it is also more powerful. 




The Ezekiel choke from the back(also known as the Ruotolotine) became much more popular this year. This was somewhat of a surprise to me because it is a move that you need long arms to do, but it seems enough people liked to make it appear on the top 10 most common subs list. I think this is due to it solving a common problem on the back. Usually people will block your choking arm and you can't get the RNC, but by using the Ezekiel choke, you can turn either arm into a choking arm and catch opponents off guard. It also works well when people try to turn out of arm triangle chokes. It has proven to be a very solid submission that might not always be your first choice, but a reliable back up. 


Breakout Stars


This year we got to see a lot of new talent, so I thought I'd go over some people you might want to look out for in 2026. First off we have Declan Moody. He isn't exactly new, but he went from a lower level local Australian talent, to one of the best people in the world. His passing has looked amazing and his game looks really solid in all areas. He became WNO open weight champion and showed the world that he can hang with anyone. In 2026 he will compete in ADCC again and I'm expecting better results than previous years out of him. 


 

Ana Mayordomo has looked amazing this year as well. She has won 2 ADCC trials(unfortunately they don't count when it comes to ADCC qualification), IBJJF nogi pans and came in 2nd at nogi worlds. She came out of nowhere and just started winning everything. She is training out of Kingsway now and has a very good overall game, but seems focused on leglocks. Even if she doesn't win the next trials, I expect to see her at ADCC next year. 


 

Helena Crevar has switched from a promising talent to one of the top competitors in women's grappling. She won the women's division at CJI and defeated some of the best current competitors such as Adele Fornarino and Elizabeth Clay. Not only is she beating people, but she is subbing them. She has some of the best guard attacks in pro BJJ. She has chokes, leg locks and arm locks. The thing that makes here extremely dangerous is that she isn't a one trick pony. You never know what she is going to do and she just keeps getting better. Her winning ADCC went from being a dream to something inevitable. Being so young and at such an advanced level, almost nobody can stand in her way.


 

One of the few people that can stand in Helena's way is Sarah Galvao. She has shown she can beat her and other top level BJJ pros despite being so young. At CJI she was able to beat current ADCC champion Ana Carolina Vera. Her defense is very solid and her passing is amazing. She also has very solid stand up, which will help her if she decides to do ADCC. The only thing holding her back is her lack of experience in nogi. If she puts more time into it should could be unstoppable. 


 

Another woman in the mix is Cassia Moura. She actually beat Sarah and I believe she was undefeated in nogi this year. She ended this year by winning nogi worlds. By itself that is impressive, but it is even more impressive when you consider she won at heavy weight despite the fact that she fights at 4 weight classes lower. She is very athletic, but also technical. She is good on top and bottom and can be dangerous everywhere. 

 

Getting back to the guys, Pawel Jaworski looked amazing this year. I remember hearing about him last year, but I always thought of him as Matheus Szcenski's protégé. He has now cemented himself as a force in his division and might have some of the most dangerous leg locks in pro grappling. He has been winning everything he's been in and at the end of the year won nogi worlds.  



Overall

2025 was another good in nogi grappling and we got a lot of good matches. I think the addition of CJI and UFC BJJ will help bring in people who don't want to subscribe to a streaming service. The prize money in pro BJJ is continuing to increase and due to that there seems to be an increase in the number of professionals. 

2025 seems to have been a rebuilding year where many of the older athletes started to leave and a new crop of young people entered the scene. 2 of the biggest figures in pro BJJ, Craig Jones and Gordon Ryan, now appear to be completely retired. Those 2 seemed to be the biggest draws and their absence seems to have hurt the comp scene a bit, but I think it also lets people see some of the new talent. The Ruotolos have started to move to MMA as well, so there aren't that many BJJ superstars right now, but there are a number of newer athletes who have started to make a name for themselves. 

Overall I think pro BJJ is look healthy and in a good position to continue to grow. The events seem to be a bit more consistent than before and all of the major orgs have been building up new talent instead of relying on the same 4-10 people that they've used in years past. I think this will pay dividends in the years to come. I'm looking forward to what 2026 brings. Stay tuned for the next post where I show the stats for, takedowns, passes, etc. 

2021 Stats Pt.1

2021 Stats Pt.2


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